Urgent action needed to address rising deaths in custody, says IAPDC in new report
Deaths in custody are projected to rise significantly over the next five years, driven by a growing custodial population and continuing prison overcrowding. Our new report, published today, explores how increases in the prison population and occupancy pressures may affect future mortality trends across different causes of death, including deaths from self-inflicted causes and physical health-related deaths (such as cancer and heart disease).
This article contains reference to suicide and deaths in custody. If you or someone you know is affected, please contact Samaritans on 116 123 or visit samaritans.org for support.
Drawing on a ten-year analysis (2014-2024) of prison mortality and overcrowding in England and Wales using robust methods, it models the projected total annual deaths for the period 2025-2029, highlighting the risks posed by sustained overcrowding and a growing prison population.
The analysis reveals that while the prison population is expected to grow by 13% between 2025 and 2029, self-inflicted deaths are expected to rise by 21%, a disproportionately higher rise. The analytic modelling suggests that prisons operating above capacity experience significantly higher rates of self-inflicted and physical health-related deaths, particularly in Category B prisons (which are local or training prisons and accommodate a significant proportion of the prison population).
Our report emphasises the urgent need for targeted suicide and self-harm prevention measures in prisons with occupancy rates at or above 100%. It calls for a coordinated response to an increased custodial population and overcrowding that includes investment in prison infrastructure and enhanced data sharing to support independent research. It also highlights the need for targeted interventions, including improving and adequately funding mental health services and overall improved healthcare provision, as well as more robust suicide prevention strategies.
These findings also reinforce the urgency of implementing the recommendations of the Independent Sentencing Review, published in May of this year, which was established to address the unsustainable growth of the prison population. The Review advocates for a shift toward community-based alternatives to custody and fewer prison sentences for minor offences – measures that would alleviate overcrowding. Based on our report, such measures will likely save lives.
IAPDC member Professor Seena Fazel, who led this research with his colleague Denis Yukhnenko, said:
“Our modelling shows that while the prison population is projected to grow by 13% by 2029, self-inflicted deaths are expected to rise by 21%. It is important that measures are in place to focus attention on these parts of the prison estate that are projected to disproportionately higher increases in deaths such as Category B prisons. We are keen to regularly update this modelling work by incorporating more detailed, establishment-level data. Enhanced data sharing to support independent research will be vital in developing evidence-based interventions to prevent deaths in custody.”
Lynn Emslie, IAPDC Chair, added:
“Keeping those in the care and custody of the state safe is a fundamental duty of any government. The ongoing crisis in prison capacity and overcrowding has made meeting this critical duty especially challenging. Our report underscores the need for a coordinated response to rising custodial population and overcrowding. We call for urgent investment in mental health services, targeted suicide and self-harm prevention strategies, and improved prison infrastructure to reduce future mortality.”
You can read our report here.